According to the source, probabilities on Polymarket for the eventual Nobel Peace Prize winner surged from near-zero to over 70% several hours before the public announcement, based on the market’s timestamped price history and order book data. source: Polymarket market data The sharp repricing indicates heavy net buying of contracts ahead of the news, creating meaningful edge for positioned traders on the real-money prediction market. source: Polymarket trade history Polymarket operates on the Polygon network and settles markets in USDC, so participants need USDC on Polygon to trade these events. source: Polymarket documentation Regulatory risk remains material after Polymarket paid a 1.4 million dollar civil penalty and imposed U.S. access restrictions in a 2022 settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, impacting availability for U.S.-based traders. source: U.S. CFTC press release For trading, monitoring sudden probability spikes on Polymarket can serve as an early signal for event outcomes and liquidity shifts across prediction markets. source: Polymarket market feed